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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 38,5x - 42,5x | 40,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 27,4x - 30,3x | 28,8x |
| Fair Value | ¥18,57 - ¥20,59 | ¥19,58 |
| Upside | -20,1% - -11,4% | -15,7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Greatview Aseptic Packaging Company Limited | 468 | SEHK:468 |
| Fujian Nanwang Environment Protection Scien-Tech Co.,Ltd | 301355 | SZSE:301355 |
| Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. | 600210 | SHSE:600210 |
| Xiamen Hexing Packaging Printing Co., Ltd. | 2228 | SZSE:002228 |
| Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd. | 601968 | SHSE:601968 |
| Shanghai Sunglow Packaging Technology Co.,Ltd | 603499 | SHSE:603499 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 468 | 301355 | 600210 | 2228 | 601968 | 603499 | ||
| SEHK:468 | SZSE:301355 | SHSE:600210 | SZSE:002228 | SHSE:601968 | SHSE:603499 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -3.6% | 4.4% | 7.6% | -9.6% | 12.4% | 6.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -9.3% | 0.3% | 7.0% | -10.0% | 7.8% | 14.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 21.6% | -42.0% | 22.0% | 13.7% | 0.1% | 44.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.7% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.1% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.7% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 9.4% | 11.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.3% | 5.5% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 8.8% | 14.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.69x | 1.74x | 1.02x | 0.40x | 0.81x | 6.56x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 32.0x | 7.6x | 10.3x | 9.3x | 46.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.2x | 89.7x | 10.4x | 26.2x | 21.3x | 95.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 9.3x | 32.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 31.9x | 41.6x | 51.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 38.5x | 40.5x | 42.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 111 | 111 | 111 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,261 | 4,485 | 4,709 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (140) | (140) | (140) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,121 | 4,345 | 4,569 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 216.1 | 216.1 | 216.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 19.06 | 20.10 | 21.14 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 19.06 | 20.10 | 21.14 | 23.23 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -17.9% | -13.5% | -9.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 468 | 301355 | 600210 | 2228 | 601968 | 603499 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,442 | 2,244 | 10,885 | 4,676 | 6,590 | 5,161 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 940 | 456 | 2,036 | 532 | 641 | 107 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 1,588 | 65 | 201 | 155 | |
| (-) Debt | (56) | (433) | (3,473) | (1,462) | (1,164) | (351) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (41) | (31) | (465) | (197) | (188) | (52) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,285 | 2,235 | 10,572 | 3,614 | 6,080 | 5,021 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,407.1 | 194.5 | 1,516.7 | 1,158.4 | 1,261.4 | 216.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.33 | 11.49 | 6.97 | 3.12 | 4.82 | 23.23 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.50 | 11.49 | 6.97 | 3.12 | 4.82 | 23.23 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |